20160208 Vision Author Culture on Knowledge Forum

Re: 20160208 Vision Author Culture on Knowledge Forum

Postby tahanson43206 » Sat Sep 23, 2017 12:48 pm

20170923 Reference #1, Page 20, Paragraph 3

In this paragraph, Dr. Dartnell continues development of a nightmare scenario, and he cites the disorder that occurred in Louisiana in the USA after Hurricane Katrina, in 2005.

While I understand the potential for loss of the social contract under circumstances such as Katrina, I think that the social contract was already at the breaking point in New Orleans, in Louisiana, and throughout much of the Southern part of the United States at the time. In fact, that contract had been under stress since the founding of the nation, due to the conviction of a segment of the population that it had the right to own other human beings.

However, Dr. Dartnell's primary point was that the social contract could break down under conditions of severe stress upon a society, and I concede that Katrina certainly supports that observation.

However, in 2017, we do seem to be seeing a different flow of events, as hurricanes have bowled over communities in the island nations of the Caribbean and in the Southern US, including Houston, Texas and all of the State of Florida.

This year, the United States government seems to be better prepared. However, aside from that, there are a remarkable number of stories coming out of the affected regions of human kindness towards others.

I am tempted to think that the culture of a society is a factor in how the members of the society respond to massive stress.

During the period when these notes are recorded, a documentary series is in broadcast on the history of the Vietnam War, which I understand the Vietnamese call “The American War”. It is made clear throughout the series, that the people of North Vietnam were able to sustain their morale under what seems to me to have been terrible pressure, and a continuing disaster in any sense that one might use that term.

Because of these observations, I am tempted to conclude that even a massive disaster such as the one Dr. Dartnell described, might not necessarily lead to a loss of cohesion of the society, depending upon the culture that existed before the disaster. A combination of inspired leadership and inspired followership can prevent dissolution of a society under stress.


In the current issue of Analog Science Fact and Fiction (Vol CXXXVII Ns. 9 & 10)...

an author listed as “Craig DeLancey” created what I experience as a remarkable vision of a major disaster impacting two distinct societies, in his story “Orphans”.

Mr. DeLancey presents a human expedition approaching a planet in a state-of-the-art space ship, after a voyage of 100 years in cold sleep. Thus, the scenario Mr. DeLancey sets up seems reasonable to me, and I did not find any details of his concept that suggested magical thinking. In other words, this was a traditional Analog story.

The remarkable twist to the story is that Mr. DeLancey has imagined a challenge to the expedition which seems plausible, and he then follows the consequences of this challenge to reveal how it had previously affected the natives on the planet, and how it affected the crew of the vessel.

Despite what seems to be an almost overwhelming setback to the members of the expedition, Mr. DeLancey leaves the reader with a sense of optimism that there might be a positive outcome.

However, to Dr. Dartnell's point about the “social contract” …. this was presented as a highly disciplined crew of humans who were able to sustain their positive interactions despite the stress.

From this reference, I found a possible explanation for the remarkable resilience of the North Vietnamese people:
http://www.historyonthenet.com/authenti ... index.html

Begin Quotation:
Confucian philosophy and ethics adopted from the Chinese continued to emphasize the importance of family (which often had 3 or more generations under 1 roof) and community over the needs and wants of the individual.  
End Quotation.

(th)
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Re: 20160208 Vision Author Culture on Knowledge Forum

Postby tahanson43206 » Sat Sep 30, 2017 1:21 pm

20170930 Reference #1, Page 21, Paragraph 1

Last week the post considered how the United States handled Hurricanes Harvey and Irma.
Begin Quotation:
I am tempted to think that the culture of a society is a factor in how the members of the society respond to massive stress.
End Quotation.

As of this writing, recovery from hurricanes Harvey and Irma seems to be proceeding reasonably smoothly. Individuals who lived in a nursing facility which went several days without air conditioning are still expiring, but the overall death toll seems moderate, compared to Katrina.

According to a Texas news source on September 6, 2017, the toll had reached 70 for Harvey.

Reports for hurricane Irma are scattered due to the number of separate regions.

A British source suggested there may have been 25 deaths in the Caribbean, and a Florida source suggested the toll in Florida may have reached 26.

However, as of this writing, conditions in Puerto Rico remain poor to bad. Despite the challenges of their “civilization” dropping back 100 years in the blink of an eye, I have heard (or seen) no reports of panic, and instead, multiple reports of coping and mutual assistance.

Squabbling on the social network Twitter is a reflection of the technology available in 2017.

On NPR yesterday, I heard an interview with a member of the Ham Radio community who had been communicating with operators in Puerto Rico. It would be my expectation that ham radio operators would tend to be better prepared for power outage than would the average citizen, but eventually reserves would be exhausted, unless preparations included installing renewable energy systems.

In Paragraph 1 on Page 21, Dr. Dartnell continues development of a scenario featuring organized gangs. I do not discount this possibility, if the culture of the community supports it.

My observation of recent hurricane responses in the Caribbean and Southern United States suggests that there is a very limited undercurrent of criminality that would support formation of gangs.

On the other hand, gangs are flourishing in parts of South America, and in some major cities in the United States, so a major disaster would provide fuel for people with these activity and mental patterns to assert themselves.

On balance, I think it would be possible to predict how specific cultures will react to severe stress such as Dr. Dartnell has imagined. The dark side will certainly strengthen where it is already rooted.

The future of Puerto Rico is very much in doubt, because it is a territory of the United States, and not a State. My expectation is that the stress of Hurricane Maria will lead to a change in the status of the territory, though what direction that change will take is most certainly not clear (to me).

Overall, in light of the warning Dr. Dartnell offers in "The Knowledge", I can see value in development of a resilient culture where that is possible, both in nurturing of positive capabilities, and in identifying and limiting negative ones. As Dr. Dartnell points out, leadership is going to appear in circumstances of stress, and the available followership is going to determine the outcome over time.

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Re: 20160208 Vision Author Culture on Knowledge Forum

Postby tahanson43206 » Sat Oct 07, 2017 2:37 pm

20171007 Reference #1, Page 21, Paragraph 2

In this short paragraph, Dr. Dartnell continues development of a scenario that might well occur after a major disaster. He quotes a line from "preppers".

This writing comes after the slaughter of 58 people and injury to 400 or more, at an outdoor music event in Las Vegas, Nevada, in the US.

One of the performers was quoted subsequently as saying he had changed his pro-gun position, after realizing that the pistol (I gather) he carried would have been useless against the automatic machine guns deployed by the shooter.

The United States population is at a cusp of a decision, it seems to me.

Dr. Dartnell's vision in the current chapter seems quite reasonable, but it is not very appealing. It presumes that people caught up in a major disaster will lose their humanity, or perhaps it presumes that those who have a more animalistic fundamental character will survive and "prosper". The drug lord culture that exists in 2017 in parts of South America give us a fairly accurate picture of what such a culture might look like.

Just as air travel is now encumbered in countless indignities brought about by the assaults against peaceful air travelers in recent decades in the US and elsewhere, so it is possible that checking into hotels may involve X-ray of luggage and hand inspections. This change of behavior would increase employment opportunities for those willing to operate inspection stations.

Alternatively, the mass of US citizens may decide to face the risk of another mass shooting and simply go about their business, as they have done in the case of movie theaters and schools and work places.

It's not clear to me at this point how the mass of the population is going to respond to this latest insult.

Meanwhile, experiments are underway in numerous other countries, where various levels of violence are occurring on a frequent basis.

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Re: 20160208 Vision Author Culture on Knowledge Forum

Postby tahanson43206 » Sat Oct 14, 2017 1:15 pm

20171014 Reference #1, Page 21, Paragraph 3

In this paragraph, Dr. Dartnell continues development of a nightmare scenario, featuring a presumption of ill will and base behavior on the part of a population affected.

While this kind of behavior has occurred in the past in some human cultures, it has most definitely not occurred in others. That said, in this paragraph Dr. Dartnell identifies places of incarceration as potential bases for conclaves of survivors who might feel (or have) the need to protect themselves from other survivors.

In light of the sophistication of weapons systems developed by various factions in recent decades, I am cautiously optimistic the “manning” of a prison might be an effective strategy, assuming the prison population had been released some time previous to the new use, and assuming the forces interested in taking over the facility are not equipped with some of the powerful systems available in 2017.

It would certainly be understandable if the occupying force were to look for and to acquire the most powerful weaponry that might be floating around during this period.

However, if the culture of the population in an area is of a less destructive disposition, it might be possible to put everyone to work on behalf of the entire community, as seems to have been the case in many examples current in 2017. I am thinking here, not only of regions devastated by natural disaster in the US, but refugee camps in many parts of the world, where “campers” are trying to work together as best they can to improve their collective circumstances.

Dr. Dartnell's more pessimistic scenario is visible in 2017, in failed or failing nation states in Africa. Armed factions are engaged in murder, rape, destruction and whatever else they think of to try to impose their will upon people of other tribes or belief systems. In those cases, it appears (to me) that the bleak landscape Dr. Dartnell has imagined is coming about through the intended actions of the human protagonists.

The Islamic State fighters in Iraq and Syria certainly have shown an understanding of the value of fortifications, but it appears that none of their fortifications are capable of holding against those who intend to remove them.

The quality of leadership in localities seems to be a significant factor in how a population deals with a calamity, but the underlying culture of that community may be even more significant.

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Re: 20160208 Vision Author Culture on Knowledge Forum

Postby tahanson43206 » Sat Oct 21, 2017 2:01 pm

20171021 Reference #1, Page 22, Paragraph 1

In this paragraph, Dr. Dartnell concludes his opening section on “Tearing up the social contract”.

It seems entirely possible that the scenario Dr. Dartnell has painted could occur, but as I look back over the swath of history of the human race to which I have been exposed, I cannot think of any cases similar to the one laid out.

The quality of leadership in localities seems to be a significant factor in how a population deals with a calamity, but the underlying culture of that community may be even more significant.

The human race has suffered massive disasters, and in fact, regions are suffering massive disasters all around the world in 2017. War between groups of humans in areas in or near Africa is creating disaster situations in multiple locations, and weather events have imposed disaster conditions upon regions in the Southern Atlantic and Caribbean.

Recently I was able to attend a presentation by a radio amateur who had spent several weeks in the Island of St. Thomas, helping to run a communications station. The crew who maintained the facility were able to connect safety personnel on the ground with naval vessels off shore, as well as with the mainland.

The presenter showed the audience slides which included images of the devastation, which was nearly total. The slides also included illustrations of residents of the island, and volunteers from elsewhere, cooperating to bring supplies to the island, and to distribute them as needed.

While the presenter did not visit the island of Puerto Rico, there is plenty of media coverage of the ongoing failure of the population to manage recovery from the disaster despite federal and volunteer assistance.

Because Dr. Dartnell has mentioned the likelihood of looting and criminal behavior in the event of a disaster, I note that the presenter did report several incidents of looting that he heard about, and he said that part of his responsibility was to discourage looters who were attracted to the radio facility, which was one of the very few still operating after the hurricane.

Interestingly, I gather that there is a prohibition against gun ownership in the Island of St. Thomas, so the presenter was obligated to avoid discussing the presence of fire arms at the radio facility. The audience seemed to me to deduce that weapons were indeed present, and they might even have been part of the process of “discouraging” looters who were attracted by the sound of the generator.

In the present paragraph, Dr. Dartnell concludes his consideration of the possibility of lawlessness. I am coming away from this section with awareness that breakdown of the social contract is certainly possible, but after looking at what I know of past and current disasters, I remain moderately persuaded that the greater part of the population on Earth today is resistant to the temptation to yield to lawless behavior, even under extreme stress.


Turning to the topic of preparing for disaster, which (it seems to me) is the focus of the greater part of “The Knowledge”, I'd like to introduce a topic that relates to weather events:
http://www.dispatch.com/news/20171016/d ... state-park

This report by Dean Narciso describes ongoing construction of a dome shaped shelter for a local park, where tornado activity is possible. The design is (apparently) well proven.

http://www.southindustries.com/dome-ben ... urability/

While all the domes built by South Industries have been constructed using traditional manual labor, I am interested in the evolution of 3D printers to achieve comparable capability over time.

The “projects” tab of the South Industries web site shows a number of completed installations.

Before saving today's update, I'd like to add that the radio facility on the Island of St. Thomas withstood not only Hurricane Irma, but Hurricane Maria which followed. The professional weather measuring equipment reported wind speed of 213 miles per hour before it disappeared.

The building where the radio facility was located had been built on top of and secured to a 10,000 gallon water tank. Wooden covers where secured over windows with long deck screws. The only damage suffered by the facility was to the antenna mast, which was twisted into what was described as a pretzel shape.

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Re: 20160208 Vision Author Culture on Knowledge Forum

Postby tahanson43206 » Sat Oct 28, 2017 3:31 pm

20171028 Reference #1, Page 22, Paragraph 2

In this paragraph, Dr. Dartnell concludes his opening section on “Tearing up the social contract”.

It seems entirely possible that the scenario Dr. Dartnell has painted could occur, but as I look back over the swath of history of the human race to which I have been exposed, I cannot think of any cases similar to the one laid out.

The quality of leadership in localities seems to be a significant factor in how a population deals with a calamity, but the underlying culture of that community may be even more significant.

The human race has suffered massive disasters, and in fact, regions are suffering massive disasters all around the world in 2017. War between groups of humans in areas in or near Africa is creating disaster situations in multiple locations, and weather events have imposed disaster conditions upon regions in the Southern Atlantic and Caribbean.

My overall impression is that the culture of a population can mediate potential misbehavior by individuals to some extent, and the nature of individuals who seek leadership is significant.

Because elections are in progress in the United States at the time of this posting, I am reminded once again, of the responsibility of the individual to select leaders who will serve the community as a whole to the best of their ability, when the culture permits voting.

(th)
Last edited by tahanson43206 on Mon Nov 06, 2017 7:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 20160208 Vision Author Culture on Knowledge Forum

Postby tahanson43206 » Sun Nov 05, 2017 5:27 pm

20171104 Reference #1, Page 22, Paragraph 3

Section: The best way for the world to end

This thread was undertaken with the intention of following along with Dr. Dartnell as he developed his argument, and attempting to find elements upon which it might be possible to build one or more alternative futures. Since the method chosen is to move paragraph by paragraph, I have to work with what Dr. Dartnell provided.

In the present instance, Dr. Dartnell is still thinking about the unfolding of various apocalyptic scenarios that would yield the circumstances for which “The Knowledge” would be helpful.

While a nuclear war or a Solar coronal mass ejection event are certainly possible, in the end, Dr. Dartnell chose a scenario that removes human population while leaving infrastructure intact. This specification will appear in the next paragraph.

In the meantime, I am interested in a vision of construction of one or more futures which do not involve global disaster, but which DO require management of people and resources to provide a “civilized” life for a community large enough to be able to support the goods, services and culture regarded as “civilized” on Earth in 2017.

In an issue of Analog Science Fact and Fiction which I read recently, and now cannot find, the author proposed a scenario in which an alien race built a shade between the Earth and the Sun, so that the surface of the Earth would freeze over. The author proposed that a small subset of the human race with access to nuclear submarine technology were able to build enough vessels to live near sea vents on the ocean floor. The tension of the story was constructed around uncertainty about when, if ever, the sun shade would be removed, and the story came to a satisfying conclusion.

However, for the purpose of considering this immediate paragraph in “The Knowledge”, I find it within the realm of possibility to consider this solution for both of the scenarios Dr. Dartnell proposed. In both cases, while the surface of the Earth would be rendered unusable for a number of years, the undersea survival tactic proposed by the Analog author would seem (to me) reasonable.

The Analog author proposed that the small surviving population would be able to sustain what we would consider a reasonable level of technology and livability, and more importantly, to raise enough children to sustain the population for however long might be necessary.

That scenario seems remarkably similar to the situation of the population of the space ship Kim Stanley Robinson described in his book “Aurora”, which is considered in the Magellan thread elsewhere in the Knowledge Forum.

A critical difference is that the Analog author has presumed an emergency response to build the undersea survival environment, while Mr. Robinson appears to have imagined sufficient time and enough resources for the builders of the “Aurora” expedition to try to anticipate every possible problem that might occur. Of course, Mr. Robinson's novel is characterized by circumstances the expedition designers did NOT anticipate.

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Re: 20160208 Vision Author Culture on Knowledge Forum

Postby tahanson43206 » Sun Nov 12, 2017 12:44 am

20171111 Knowledge update

Reference #1 Page 23 Paragraph 1

In this paragraph, Dr. Dartnell sets aside the nuclear war (or equivalent) apocalypse in favor of one that ...
Begin Quotation:
...that leaves the material infrastructure of our technological civilization untouched.
End Quotation.

This scenario reminds me of various science fiction stories I have encountered over the years, with the difference that (often) the author proposes that humans have stumbled upon the remnants of a long extinguished alien civilization. Actually (come to think of it) humans have frequently stumbled upon the remnants of previous (human) civilizations, and have spent a lot of time and painstaking effort trying to reconstruct the patterns of those earlier experiments.

Dr. Dartnell concludes this paragraph with the observation that ...
Begin Quotation:
...before they need to relearn all the essential functions of a self-supporting society.
End Quotation.

It occurs to me that our present "civilization, such as it is", exists from generation to generation almost entirely because enormous effort is expended in trying to pass along the knowledge and skills needed to sustain it in the first place, and to advance it incrementally in the second.

Thus, (in a sense), each new generation is “re-learning”, although they have the distinct advantage of a cadre of instructors who supervise the process.

And this leads me to the observation that even in today's world, very few individuals possess much of the knowledge or skill that collectively supports the collective enterprise.

In the Adam Smith thread which runs parallel to this one, I've been trying to understand how economies work. Lately, I've added a book by Alan Beattie to the mix. In the latest chapter given study, Mr. Beattie describes the differences in the evolution of Argentina and the United States, both of which started out with very comparable circumstances. The conclusion which I gather from this chapter is that while the United States chose a pattern of empowering individuals to develop small amounts of the vast resources of the nation, Argentina maintained a very different model based upon a European pattern of large estates.

As a tentative conclusion to advance in the context of Dr. Dartnell's forum, I'm tempted to consider the wisdom of setting a policy of expecting every individual to master some basic level of commonly accepted knowledge (or convention for practice) while at the same time developing at least one skill not shared with everyone else, and in the example cited, setting a policy of distributing resources roughly equally among the population.

As Adam Smith would surely opine, each individual would subsequently attempt to improve his or her circumstances within the context of the society under construction, including advancing knowledge and improving skills to produce superior results.

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Re: 20160208 Vision Author Culture on Knowledge Forum

Postby tahanson43206 » Sun Nov 19, 2017 5:40 pm

2017/11/18 Update Knowledge Forum Knowledge Thread

Reference #1 Page 23 Paragraph 2

Section: The best way for the world to end

The most interesting aspect of Paragraph 2 for me, was footnote 1.

Begin Quotation from footnote 1, regarding benefits of Black Death:
...usher in a much more egalitarian social structure and market-oriented economy.
End Quotation.

As the three concurrent threads in the current series progress, I am attempting to visualize a structure for human community which would optimize the influences of the various systems of behavior and attitude which humans have tried over the past millennia.

Dr. Dartnell's observation about the social changes which occurred after the Black Death swept through Europe highlight the stratified nature of society that existed at the time. Looking out at various cultures in 2017, I see very few where community members are situated approximately in equal circumstances.

The United States in particular has swerved strongly back into the disparity between economic classes that existed before the Great Depression.

This is just a guess, but it appears to me likely that a hierarchical structure may be genetically predisposed in the human genome. Thus, as I look out, I see a tendency on the part of major populations to welcome and to support autocratic governments, usually under a single individual. Russia today seems (to me at least) to illustrate such a tendency, and even in the United States, there appears to be a strong desire on the part of about a third of the voting population that yearns for an authoritarian figure to direct their lives.

Thus, design of a future society which might be created away from Earth, or even on Earth as a trial run, should take into account what may be a predisposition to subconsciously seek an authoritarian figure to direct community affairs.

I suppose it is possible that over many eons, natural selection has favored survival of cultures which have adopted authoritarian leaders who were able to organize military and economic activities to insure the survival of the culture and thus of the genetic lines carried forward under their protection.

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Re: 20160208 Vision Author Culture on Knowledge Forum

Postby tahanson43206 » Sat Nov 25, 2017 2:25 pm

20171125 Update Knowledge Forum Knowledge Thread

Reference #1 Page 24 and top of Page 25

Section: The best way for the world to end

In this section, Dr. Dartnell narrows the range of possible futures for which “The Knowledge” might be most helpful.

He arrives at a starting population of about 250 people, citing examples from history.

While preparation for a disaster is a worthy goal for study, I am most interested in the optimum conditions that might be imagined for successful ventures of human communities away from Earth.

The concern that Dr. Dartnell addresses with his selection of about 250 people for a starting population is genetic diversity.

Both Kim Stanley Robinson and Edward M. Lerner have addressed this issue in their science fiction novels.

Mr. Robinson presumes a starting population for his ship heading to “Aurora” of about 2000 people, but more importantly from the genetic diversity perspective, he presumes the presence of genetic material collected on Earth before the voyage. Mr. Robinson also presumes a highly developed Artificial Intelligence as the ship's computer, with the twist that the independent thought shown later on is presented as a consequence of the interactions of the program with a human being who is a major character in the story.

Mr. Lerner's starting population is much smaller. He presumes a crew of only six humans and a near sentient Artificial Intelligence (named Marvin). Mr. Lerner's scenario includes cabinets full of frozen embryo's and a supply of artificial wombs.

It seems to me that the idea of sending viable genetic material along with the crew to start a community away from Earth makes sense, but the ethical issues to permit collection of genetic material are significant. Even if a donor family are willing to sign legal documents freeing their offspring to travel to a distant destination, there are sure to be some who will object to the risks they are imposing upon the offspring.

In the case of Mr. Lerner's scenario, in which the entire human race is due to be wiped out by a Gamma Ray Burst, the theft of genetic material from a laboratory seems a case of the lesser of two evils, the thieves assume the burden of assuring the best possible outcome for the humans who will be brought to viability at the destination, whatever it may be. However, Mr. Lerner adds tension to his story by postulating a deviation from the highest ethical standards by a member of the crew.

In the case of Mr. Robinson's scenario, the much larger population of travelers and the detailed depiction of what comes across as fairly “normal” life aboard the ship, seems to me likely to insure a better chance of providing healthy lives for genetic material allowed to achieve birth. However, the detail of how the genetic material was collected on Earth before the voyage, and how the ethical and legal concerns were dealt with is not part of the story.

One possibility that neither of these authors, nor indeed, ANY author I have read, nor any movie I have seen, is that of collection of embryo's during an extended voyage away from Earth. Instead of enduring the forced limitation of children described in “Aurora”, to maintain the 2000 (or so) crew level, the scenario I am describing would envision capturing every fertilized egg that might be produced. In that case, the potential size of the population that might be started upon arrival would be substantially greater, but the store of genetic material from Earth would never-the-less play a significant role in insuring diversity.

In the case of Aurora, with a stable crew population of 2000, I would presume 500 females producing eggs at the rate of one per month for 100 years.

If all those eggs were fertilized and the embryos preserved, the population in reserve would amount to 600,000. That number would insure a reasonably favorable start for a population on a distant planet, and genetic material from Earth would certainly augment that number.

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