Trade-Off by David Korowicz

[Dave Z]

Trade-Off: Financial System Supply-Chain Cross-Contagion: A study in global systemic collapse.
By David Korowicz

This paper examines the networked, nodal structure of our global, industrialized economy, and the consequences of contagion due to the failure of any single, central node. It further looks into several of the stresses within our current system and their likelihood of causing failure.

The basic situation is that the system is a CAS (Complex Adaptive System) in which a cluster of central nodes are tightly coupled with each other and most other nodes. Examples include Energy, Financial, Communications, Transport, Manufacture, Extraction/Processing, Food Production... each of these are inter-dependent with the others and many other, less vital nodes. Should one of these nodes fail to function, failure spread to other inter-dependent or 'downstream' dependents in the process known as contagion. Cascading failures bring down the system.

Tipping points - another CAS term - have gained currency with a wider audience due to Climate Change. This paper argues that a tipping point for our global system is only 'node deep'.

As such, the collapse of Civilization requires relatively little initial disruption, and is likely to be cataclysmic when it occurs.

To me, this is a succinct, theoretical basis for assessing our precarious situation.


Trade-Off PDF: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5ba7a97cb91449215ec18448/t/5ba7beb04785d34faad22c70/1537719990941/Trade_Off_Korowicz.pdf
Other papers by Korwicz: https://www.korowiczhumansystems.com/publications


PS... An easy-to-grasp example: The human body is a networked, nodal CAS. Over the years, we survive a number of assaults and degradations. But should we experience failure of any one of our vital nodes (organs), the system abruptly tips. Contagion and cascading failures - without massive intervention that is both decisive and correct - take us down in short order, and we die.

Let's just say that we understand the body much better than we do global, industrial economies and their workings.


PSS... This and other Korowicz papers are moderately tough going. Most are headed by an abstract or summary section that lays out the principle points of the argument. The conclusion is likewise worth checking out.

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